Thursday, April 29, 2004

CBS/NYTimes Poll-The Truth and the numbers you need to know.

This poll, which all pundits in the media will try to spin as a bad sign for the President, came out today and holds some surprising information under the surface. This breakdown is from RealClearPolitics, linked at the right:


Article about the poll


What they don't tell you:

THE NUMBERS YOU NEED TO KNOW: Even after oversampling Democrats (35%) and Independents (36%) and undersampling Republicans (29%), CBS/NYT got the following result: Bush up 2 points on Kerry (43-41) in the three-way race among registered voters. I'm pretty sure that's not what they expected.

Yes, the poll shows - as other recent ones have - that the public has become much less sanguine about the situation in Iraq, but it also shows some surprisingly good news for President Bush:

Voters approve of the way the President is handling the war on terror 60-32 (+28). That's a positive 4-point swing since the last poll at the beginning of April.
When asked whether each candidate "says what he believes" Bush holds a 24-point advantage over Kerry (53-29).
Bush also holds a 9-point lead over Kerry as someone voters say they would "like personally" (57-48) and a 10-point lead over Kerry when asked who shares their "moral values" (68-58).
The big news to take away from the CBS News/NYT poll isn't that support for the war is down but that President Bush got such strong ratings in a sample that was skewed badly against him and in favor of John Kerry.

Notice that the article tries to skew outcome of the poll.

Thanks again to RealClearPolitics