Friday, September 17, 2004

Gallup: Bush 55, Kerry 42 (LV ), 52-44 (RV)

It is unclear how accurate this poll is, but the Gallup Poll now has the President up by 13 points overall. Although the spread is probably not nearly this great the poll does show the trend towards the President that the state by state polling has shown. It will also make headlines and serve to deflate and panic the already, panicky Kerry Campaign. Even the poll is off by 100%, the President still has a healthy seven point lead.

Instapundit has linked to an article by Al Hunt who hypothesizes that measuring likely voters is an outdated method that does not take into consideration the motivation level of the base of each candidate in the current election.. He believes that the registered voter measure is much more likely to be accurate in this election. Conservatives should take heart if that is the case, because the poll of registered voters by Gallup puts the President 8 points ahead. Gallup uses a relatively complicated set of eight questions to determine whether or not the person being polled is a likely voter. According to Al Hunt several polls use only one question to separate the registered voters from the likely voters. It would make sense to assume that the more thorough the questions used to determine likely voters the more accurate the poll.

Either way, it is better to be in George Bush’s shoes at this point than John Kerry’s, but conservatives must continue to pound the issues and prepare the ground game for the election.

Be sure to check the current posts for updates.