Friday, September 17, 2004

More Bad Poll News for Kerry

When looking at polls, conservatives and republicans need to be aware of two things.

1. Polls can change quickly. This campaign will be event driven. Events in Iraq and with the economy will drive the electorate in one direction more than any number of millions spent on campaign commercials and rallies. The media will attempt to drive the election toward Kerry, as we have plainly seen with the ridiculous refusal by Dan Rather and CBS News to come clean on the famous memos. In fact, if Dan Rather's refusal to come clean has done anything it has made the public acutely aware of the fact that the media is willing to distort the truth in order to help Kerry. Rather has managed to eliminate a lot of the advantage that Kerry had in the press, but the mainstream media will still attempt to portray Iraq as a quagmire and the economy slowing. Those are the two issues the campaign will be decided on.

2. The Democrats will cheat. If you do not think the Democrats actually cheat in elections you have not been paying attention, and you need to read Hugh Hewitt's book, If It's Not Close They Can't Cheat . They have cheated in the past, they are planning on cheating this year and they will cheat in the future. The only question this election is how wide ranging the cheating will be this year. On the Sean hannity Show, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich stated that he was confident that the Democrats would manage to steal at least one million votes in this election. One million. It is important to remeber that several states, not just Florida, were decided by just a few hundred votes. One million illegal votes can swing many close states.

With those two things in mind it is important that Republicans not become complacent after seeing the poll numbers that are coming out. The new CBS/NY Times Poll has the President leading 50-41 among registered voters. That is almost exactly in line with the Gallup Poll released today that gave the President a 13 point lead among likely voters and an eight point lead among registered voters. As noted in a previous post, Al Hunt worried today in the Wal Street Journal that the polls may be wrong. he fretted that a poll of registered voters may be more accurate than that of likely voters because of the intense "get out the vote" efforts in this election. A "likely voter" poll usually favors the Republican candidate. If that is the case, Republicans can feel good that in the last two major polls released the President has a helathy lead among registered voters. But the recent success should motivate republicans to work harder, not grow complacent.

Be sure to check the current posts for updates.