Sunday, October 03, 2004

Newsweek Post Debate Poll: Worthless

The poll making the headlines after the first Presidential debate is the Newsweek Poll that shows John Kerry with a two point lead over the President. That is especially noteworthy because the Newsweek poll taken the week before had the President leading Kerry by six points, an eight point swing that wouild seem to be the result of the debate. Unfortunately for Newsweek, CNN, the Denver Post, the Democrats and all others who wish to use the poll to create momentum for Kerry, the poll is worthless. There is analysis of the poll at LittleGreenFootballs. In conducting the post-debate poll, Newsweek oversampled Democrats, especially compared to teh previous poll. The Internals acording to analysis at Powerline show that Kerry actually lost 1% support form the previous poll.

The media will use this poll and other biased polls to help create momentum for Kerry down the stretch, but the results the media are portraying are false. It seems that most people have made up their minds about the election. The Rassmussen Daily tracking poll for todat shows the president with a four point lead, equaling the largest lead he has had in that poll.

The media will try to spin teh debate as a huge victory for Kerry and a momentum changing event. It will have little effect. Like John Kerry's talking down of the economy, the media's talking up of a farce of a poll will not register with voters.

Be sure to check the current posts for updates.