Monday, November 01, 2004

CBS/NY Times Poll

The internals of the latest CBS/New York Times Poll has some very interesting internal numbers, as pointed out in multiple places, including on Polipundit. A summary as posted by Polipundit:

John Kerry has a 41% favorable, 47% unfavorable rating. This is his worst rating ever.

President Bush has a 48% favorable, 41% unfavorable rating. That is his best rating since last December.

Undecided voters lean to President Bush 50%-47%, validating the Pew finding and calling the Gallup number into question.

66% of Bush voters strongly favor their candidate.

50% of Kerry voters strongly favor their candidate.

By a 49%-34% margin, voters expect President Bush to win.

President Bush has a 49%-44% job approval rating.

The right track today is 43%. In 1996, it was only 39%.

48% of voters will vote on national security issues; only 33% on domestic issues.

By a 54%-29%, voters believe the Bush Administration has made them safer.

53% of voters do not think that Kerry agrees with their priorities, his worst number ever. 42% believe he has the same.

48% of voters do not think that Bush agrees with their priorities. 49% believe he does share their priorities.

52% of voters think Kerry has leadership qualities, his lowest number ever.

62% of voters think President Bush has leadership qualities.

57% of voters are uneasy with Kerry’s ability to handle a crisis.

60% believe Kerry says what people want to hear. Only 36% say that about President Bush.

53% of Americans say we did the right think in Iraq. Only 42% disagree.

31% say their families are better off than they were four years ago. 40% say about the same.

Most importantly, the percentage of voters call themselves a liberal has declined to 17%, the lowest number since 1997. 35% call themselves conservative.

If these numbers are close to accurate, this election will not be close. The polls have been all over the place this year, and may prove more useful as an indication of trend more than as a predictor of the outcome of the election. Zogby has the President up by one today. Zogby went out on a limb six months ago and said the election was "Kerry's to lose". If Zogby has the President ahead or even a few points behind, it is probably good news for the President. The Democrats and those in teh press who want Kerry to win keep talking about new voters and unprecedented turnout, alluding to the fact that this will put Kerry over the top. They refer to the Democrats ground game as if the Republicans have none. New voters may be the big, unpolled deciding factor in this election, or they may not. The Democrats have talked up their voter drives, using dozens of 527 groups top sign new voters. Tens of thousands of these new registrations have been found to be fraudulent. It can be also be assumed that only a percentage of those legitimate registered will vote. The Democrats have made the assumption that the vore registration drives will bring more Kerry voters to the polls. However in Colorado, after months of voter registration drives focusing on young voters, the final registration numbers were released and they showed that the number of Republicans in the state outnumbered Democrats by about 175,000. Virtually no change from the 2002 numbers.

It is impossible to know the outcome of this election at this point. The Democrats claims of huge numbers of new voters may be true. Even iif it is their is nothing to say that there won't be just as many new Republicans as Democrats. The Republicans have a good ground game as do the Democrats. Who's is better is yet to be seen.

Be sure to check the current posts for updates.

Be sure to check the current posts for updates.