Monday, November 01, 2004

Election Prediction

This is not an easy election to predict. For many months I haved believed that it would take a miracle for President Bush to be re-elected (more on why later in this post). The polls have been all over the place, erratic and unpredictable. I have gone back and forth on which polls to believe, or whether to believe that any of them accurately capture the leanings of the voters. There comes a time when you have to set the polls aside and make a prediction. Before I do I will state reasons I believe each candidate could win. Then I will post who I believe will win.

Reasons for a Kerry win

Like I said, I have believed for many months that it would take a miracle for the President to be re-elected. I have also stated that the candidates in this election are the president and the mainstream media. John Kerry is but a sideshow that benefits from the media's hatred of George Bush. The media onslaught against this President is unprecedented. There are the obvious stories like the fraudulent CBS memo's, the parade of anti-Bush authors on 60 Minutes earlier in the Spring, the love affair with individuals like Richard Clarke, the media hysteria over Michael Moore's propoganda film and the absolute breathless reporting for week after week on the Abu-Ghraib prisoner abuse as well as the three week binge (with follow up at the beginning of the Fall) over the President's Guard Service. As obviously biased and misleading as these stories have been, the media's real bias has shown in the stories they omitted. John Kerry spent 20 years in the Senate. In not one interview was he made to even be uncomfortable about his voting record. Noone asked him about his opposition of Reagan's opposition to the Soviet Union. They never asked about his opposition to the interventions in Central America, his opposition to missile defense, to major weapons systems or his opposition to the first Gulf War. Unlike with George W. Bush, the media never demanded that Kerry sign Standard form 180 that would make all of his military records public. They did not even bother to call him on his repeated lie that he had made all of his records public. But of all of the media's disgraceful distortions and lies, the worst of all has been their Soviet like suppression of good news from Iraq. If a person only listened to the mainstream media, they would most likely believe that we are trapped in a "quagmire" with no way out, other than a wholesale withdrawal of our troops. The media has suppressed any and all good news from that country. The number of schools, roads, hospitals, homes etc... that have been built is incredible. The progress that has been made in a country that just endured 35 years of tyranny is almost unbelievable, but the work goes unmentioned in the United States. The same can be said of the media's lack of attention to the miracle that was the election in Afghanistan. It was good news, it was made possible by the President and the military, so the press wanted little to do with it.

The Democrats have also embraced an almost lunatic conspiracy fringe (personified by Michael Moore). The hate they have fomented through the use of conspiracy theories and lies has attracted new, uneducated voters to their party. Many young people who have never been interested in politics have been sucked in by the "Bush Lied, People Died" propoganda. The depth of their understanding is what they have been told by Katie Couric and Michael Moore. The Democrats have bragged about the huge numbers of new voters that are going to turn out for Kerry. They may exist and they may vote. If you had been made to believe that the President of the United States was planning on starting a draft in order to send you to die so that he could line his pockets with oil money, you would be motivated too.

And lastly, the Democrats are going to cheat. The amount of registration fraud in this election is incredible. In almost every single battle ground state the Democrats or a supportive 527 group has engaged in massive registration fraud. The Kerry Campaign has already filed at least 35 law suits. In any close race the Democrats will pull out all stops and judge shop to make the playing field as uneven as possible. They will steal tens of thousands of votes, enough to steal several states.

Reasons For A Bush Win

If President Bush wins it will be because the American people have the intelligence and the character to see through the lies and distortions presented by the press and the Democrats. The new media has made an impact like never before. More and more people are now turning to blogs and talk radio for their news. The mainstream media has so discredited itself in this election cycle that they have probably neutralized their own venom. How many obviously overhyped or flat out false stories can they broadcast before they are simply ignored. It is possible that they have reached that point, and of they have, then all the 60 Minutes or Today Show hit pieces in the world won't have an impact.

If President Bush wins, it will be because the American people realize that the most important issue in this election is the war on terror, and America's place in that war is in the lead, not as just another member of a world body endlessly debating but never acting. John Kerry does not have the record nor has he made it clear in the campaign that he is fit to serve as commander in chief in a time of war. Despite his claims to the contrary he has had many positions on Iraq. He has been unable to outline any coherent plan for Iraq, and he has advocated returning to the mindset of the 1990's that allowed Al-Queda to become the threat it was on 9/11 and allowed North Korea to become a nuclear power. He would like to sell nuclear fuel to Iran, withdraw the troops in Iraq and hold summits with the countries who we now know were bribed by Saddam in order to determine how to proceed. If Bush wins it will be because Americans take seriously their role as world leader and refuse to bow down before the terrorists.

It will be because many voters who have never voted for a Republican candidate realize that leadership in the war on terror is the most important issue and that there is but one choice on the ballot. It will be because many people, when alone in the booth, pull the lever for the man they believe will keep their family safe, even if they never tell anyone who they voted for. It will be because the Republicans, with their incredibly organized ground game, were able to register just as many new voters as were the Democrats and those new voters were motivated by their desire to protect marriage, end partial birth abortion and win the war on terror. The President's base is motivated, they understand what is at stake in this election and they are ready to stand face to face with the Michael Moore crowd and declare that they will not allow them take this country over.

The Prediction

Even though I believe that it will take a miracle, I predict that President Bush will win the election. My electoral vote prediction is Bush 281 and Kerry 257. I am predicting that the President will win Florida, Ohio and Iowa and that Kerry will take Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin and Hawaii. I predict that the President will win by a margin of 3%-4%.

So there it is for what it is worth. The election is in God's hands now, all we can do is pray, vote, and encourage others to do the same.

Updated at 4:50 AM, Nov. 2:

For the purposes of full disclosure, before I changed my mind I had intended to make my prediction that John Kerry would win the election. The palpable hatred for this President from the majority of the Democrats and the press is a phenomenon that will hopefully never be repeated in the United States. No man should have to endure, and no free country should have to put up with the type of venal rhetoric the Democrats have spewed this year.

I stand by my prediction however. I refuse to believe that this country would turn itself over to the Michael Moore radical fringe that has taken over the Democratic Party. I believe when alone in the booth many people will pull the lever for the President, leave the booth and never tell anyone that they voted for him. Americans, I believe, understand what is at stake.

If the President does not win the deep disappointment I will feel will have less to do with the President and more to do with the country as a whole. What will we have turned into? What will have happened to the once great nation that withstood the darkest hours of World War II, that defeated the Soviet Union? Have we become such a self absorbed society that we can no longer bear the burden or pay any price? Are the citizens of this country so shallow as to be fooled by a modern day propogandist like Michael Moore and the Democratic Party he hijacked? If we turn away from our responsibilities in this election we will, as a nation, need to look ourselves in the mirror and aske whether we are up to the challenge of being the world's only superpower. If the majority of American's vote for John Kerry we may already know the answer.

Be sure to check the current posts for updates.