Monday, February 21, 2005

Israel Must Be "Prepared For An Air Strike on Iran"

Given Iran's clear ambition and work to produce a nuclear weapon, and given that their stated goal is the destruction of Israel, and given that Israel announced just days ago that they believe Iran to be within six months of producing a nuclear weapon, this statement by the head of Israel's Air Force should come as no surprise. Most analysts seem to believe that because of the size and the nature of Iran's nuclear program, an air strike alone would not suffice. However, noone knows what intelligence they or the United States is working with.

I think it is time to get down to brass tacks. If Israel honestly believes that Iran is within six months of having a weapon, they will strike. Major General Eliezer Shakedi said it all when he said"
"We have a job to protect the citizens of Israel," Shakedi said. "I hope that there won't be a war - but you know, no one knows."

They take the job of protecting the citizens of Israel very seriously. They know Israel will be targeted by Iran almost immediately after they develop a nuclear weapon. They will strike. There are several questions that arise:

1) Will the United States be involved in an overt way or will we simply be helping to coordinate the strike and sharing intelligence behind the scenes?

2) Will ground forces be involved?

3) Is there an agreement between the United States and forces within Iran that will allow for the uprising that has been brewing there for years to happen, with thesupport of the United States. Could the United States have some agreement with anti-regime elements within the military structure of Iran?

The United States does not seem to be preparing for any sort of ground invasion of Iran, although it cannot be ruled out. It would be much less taxing on the United States military to support an uprising with the help of elements within the Iranian military and government. This is a problem that has been brewing for a long time. It would be difficult for the administation to sell an attack on Iran, but if Israel launched the attack and the people of iran revolted against the Mullocracy, military aid would be called for and sent by any number of countries. Remember that France, England and Germany are leading the front against Iran in the UN. If there was a strike by Israel and a revolt by the people of Iran, it would be difficult for even France to justify not helping the revolt.

So in the end there could be regime change in Iran, initiated by an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facility, led by the people of Iran, and supported by the United States and European countries.

Is this far fetched? I think we will know in weeks, not months.

Be sure to check the current posts for updates.